Strategy
Thinking in Probabilities: From Football to Markets
March 8, 2024
What happens when you train your eyes to read every scenario as a range instead of a forecast?
Football habits help
Match analysts spend years quoting percentages for each scenario. Bringing that routine to markets reduces panic decisions.
Instead of saying ‘Barcelona will win’, you anchor to a probabilistic ladder, then adjust as data shifts.
- Define base, edge and risk scenarios
- Track how your confidence evolved
Markets crave ranges
Equities and crypto both punish binary thinking. Recording your probability for upside, downside and chop keeps you honest.
Predivora enforces this by forcing you to tag each action with a confidence band.